Comparing predictions against reality

Designed and produced by the Spanish CoI

The c-book unit «Comparing predictions against reality» was designed and evaluated by seven members of the Spanish CoI. It focuses on developing an interdisciplinary study where mathematics, involving elementary functions and the error control to compare predictions against reality. Most of the real data included in this c-book comes from Facebook users’ evolution.

The CoI subgroup in charge of designing this c-book unit were in cycle 1 involved in the production of the c-book unit: The Viral Behaviour of Social Networks, which can be considered as a first study of the one here presented.This second c-book unit involves more advanced mathematical tools. In particular, it focuses on looking for the ‘best’ mathematical model/s, to fit real data and use them to predict the short-, medium- and long-term behaviour of some real data set about Facebook users’ evolution. The three phase structure of the c-book unit allow students to work with their proposals and take into consideration new elements to discuss about the way to control the error between reality and forecasts, as calculating different types of errors (absolute error, squared error, etc.), and try to minimize them, as one of the possible criterion to choose and defend which mathematical model as the best for both: fitting real data and proposing forecasts.

comparing predictions against reality 1

comparing predictions against reality 2

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